With Liverpool already crowned Premier League champions and Arsenal firmly settled in second, the spotlight now turns to the drama unfolding just below. As the 2024/25 season reaches its final act, five clubs are battling for the last three Champions League spots, while others hold out hope for a Europa or Conference League place.
It’s classic final-day chaos—an unpredictable mix of tiebreakers, goal swings, and late twists. One team’s dream of European glory could be sealed in stoppage time, while another is left haunted by points dropped months ago.
The European Equation: More Complicated Than Usual
Normally, the Premier League sends four teams to the Champions League. But this season, thanks to the UEFA European Performance Spots (EPS) system—which rewards countries based on strong club performances in European competitions—England has earned an extra slot. That means the top five Premier League teams will qualify for next season’s Champions League.
On top of that, Tottenham’s Europa League victory over Manchester United guarantees them a Champions League place, regardless of where they finish in the league. That brings the total to six English clubs heading to Europe’s top competition next season.
Meanwhile, Crystal Palace’s FA Cup win secures them a Europa League ticket. The sixth-placed team in the Premier League will also join them in that competition. And because Newcastle won the Carabao Cup, they’ve provisionally bagged a Conference League spot—though that may be passed down depending on their final position in the league.
The result? A logjam of contenders and a final day dripping with significance.
How Things Stand
Here’s how the table looks heading into Sunday’s decisive matches:
- 3rd: Manchester City – 68 points (GD: +26),
- 4th: Newcastle United – 66 points (GD: +22),
- 5th: Chelsea – 66 points (GD: +20),
- 6th: Aston Villa – 66 points (GD: +9),
- 7th: Nottingham Forest – 65 points (GD: +13).
Just three points separate five clubs. One good win—or one untimely slip—could spell the difference between lifting the Champions League trophy and Thursday nights on Europa duty.
Manchester City: Nearly There
City are the safest of the lot. A point at Fulham would all but seal their top-five finish, and their healthy goal difference acts as a near-insurmountable buffer. Only a heavy defeat, coupled with wins for Newcastle, Chelsea, and Villa, could see them tumble out of the Champions League places.
Pep Guardiola may still rotate slightly, but expect a full-strength squad to close the door on any late drama.
Newcastle United: Destiny in Their Hands
The Magpies face Everton at home, and the equation is simple: win and you’re in. Their goal difference (+22) gives them a cushion over Chelsea and a yawning chasm between them and Villa.
Unsurprisingly, this fixture has attracted attention across EPL betting markets, with Newcastle favorites but punters wary of Everton’s tendency to upset expectations.
But anything less than a win opens the door to complications. A draw could suffice if Villa fail to win and Forest vs. Chelsea doesn’t end level. A loss? That scenario invites trouble, with Villa and Chelsea both capable of leapfrogging them if results go against the team.
It’s worth noting that Newcastle will fancy their chances at home and Everton have proven tricky customers when underestimated.
Chelsea: Momentum vs. Margin
Maresca’s side heads to the City Ground riding a wave of late-season form. Their +20 goal difference gives them a slight edge over Villa but leaves them trailing Newcastle.
For Chelsea, a win is the cleanest path. Beat Forest, and they likely jump ahead of Villa and possibly Newcastle, depending on other results. A draw might still be enough if Newcastle lose or Villa stumble. But a loss likely spells the end of Chelsea’s Champions League ambitions.
They’ll be wary, though—Forest still has something to play for.
Aston Villa: Needing a Little Help
Unai Emery’s men face Manchester United at Old Trafford. Of the teams on 66 points, they’re the worst off in terms of goal difference (+9). So a win might not even be enough, unless other results fall their way.
Villa’s scenario is arguably the messiest. They need to win—and hope at least one of Chelsea or Newcastle drops points. A draw or loss? Forget the Champions League.
Still, stranger things have happened. Just ask Sergio Agüero. On the final day of the 2011–12 season, he scored a 94th-minute winner against QPR to secure Manchester City the Premier League title in one of the most dramatic finishes in football history.
Nottingham Forest: The Long Shot
Forest are the romantic pick, the underdog dreaming of an upset. They sit seventh on 66, just a point behind the top trio – and face Chelsea at home.
To have any shot, they must win. That gets them to 68 points. If either Villa fails to win or Newcastle loses, Forest could leapfrog into fifth, provided their goal difference holds up (currently +13).
A draw eliminates them. A loss confirms a likely finish in seventh, which might still be enough for a Conference League ticket depending on how the other cups shake out.
What to Expect on Sunday
Sunday’s fixtures will be played simultaneously, and that’s no accident. The Premier League understands the drama of a live table—the minute-by-minute shifting of fortunes, the desperate tactical changes as managers react in real time to events elsewhere.
There’s more than just bragging rights on the line. For some clubs, a place in the Champions League can transform summer transfer budgets, player retention, and boardroom politics. For others, the Conference League is a vital stepping stone toward credibility and continental relevance.
No matter how it ends, the final day promises fireworks. Get your calculators ready—and keep one eye on the scoreboard.