Every day, thousands of baseball fans jump into the world of sports betting. One of the most exciting bets out there is the NRFI — short for “No Runs First Inning.” Simple idea: Will both teams be scoreless in the first inning? If yes, you win!
But how do you know which games are good NRFI bets? Let’s make it fun and build a quick model using just a few key stats.
Why the First Inning?
The first inning is like a coin toss — but with hidden info. The best hitters usually bat first. Starters may be warming up. Some umps call a tighter strike zone. But these aren’t mysteries. We can study them!
We’re going to use three magical keys:
- xERA – a stat that tells us how reflective a pitcher’s ERA should be
- Leadoff OBP – how often the first batter gets on base
- Umpire Run Rate – how many runs typically occur in games they call
Let’s break these down!
1. What is xERA and Why Should You Care?
Expected ERA (xERA) is like ERA’s smarter cousin. It looks beyond just runs allowed. It tells us what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on how well they’re actually pitching — including things like exit velocity and strikeouts.
If a pitcher has an xERA below 3.00, that’s awesome. That means they’re really good at limiting hard contact — a plus for NRFI. On the other hand, a guy with a 2.90 ERA but a 4.50 xERA? That pitcher might be getting lucky.
Tip: Prioritize pitchers with low xERA, not just a low ERA.
2. Leadoff OBP: A Batter’s First Impression
Leadoff OBP tells us how often the first batter of each team reaches base. Why is this important? Because one run ruins your NRFI bet! A walk, a single, a bloop — they all create momentum.
Check the OBP for each team’s first batter. Is it .400 or more? That’s high risk. Is it under .300? That’s safer. Especially if the next two hitters aren’t sluggers.
Tip: Look up daily lineups. Some teams shuffle their leadoff guys. A low OBP guy starting today might make it a prime NRFI game.
3. Umpire Run Rate: Yes, They Matter
Not all umpires are created equal.
Some have tight strike zones. Hitters love that. Others are pitcher-friendly with wide zones, leading to quicker innings. Umpire Run Rate tells us how many runs are typically scored in their games.
Example? Umpire Joe Schmo averages 10 runs per game. Meanwhile, Umpire Jane Doe averages 7. That’s a big difference in just 9 innings. In the first? It could mean the world to your bet.
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Tip: Use websites like MLB Umpire Stats or Rotowire to see the Ump’s history. Pay close attention to their scoring trend for the first inning.
Let’s Plug It Together
Now the fun part — building our at-home NRFI model! It’s not rocket science. Here’s how you can do it:
- Get the Starting Pitchers’ xERA
Use Fangraphs or Baseball Savant. Look for xERA under 3.50. - Check Leadoff OBP
Go to ESPN or MLB.com. Look at recent lineups or projected starters. Under .320? You’re golden. - Find the Umpire
Use DFS slate tools. Once you find the assigned ump, check their average runs per game. Lower = better.
Add a quick score from 1 to 5 for each stat:
- xERA – 1 point if over 4.00, 5 points if under 2.50
- Leadoff OBP – 1 point if over .400, 5 points if under .300
- Umpire Run Rate – 1 point if over 10, 5 points if under 8
Add it up. 13-15? That’s a solid green light. 10-12? Caution. Under 10? Maybe skip it.
NRFI Examples (Past & Present)
Let’s look at an example from a past MLB game:
Game: Yankees vs Guardians
- Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (xERA 2.90) vs Shane Bieber (xERA 3.10)
- Leadoff OBP: Yankees – .290, Guardians – .280
- Umpire Avg Runs: 7.5 per game
Score: xERA: 5 + 5 = 10
Leadoff OBP: 5 + 5 = 10
Umpire: 5
Total: 25/25
This is an NRFI dream. Spoiler alert: they each went 1-2-3 in the first inning.
NRFI Pitfalls to Avoid
Even the best models can’t see everything. Here’s what to watch out for:
- Weather – Wind blowing out? Avoid NRFI. Rain delays can mess with routines.
- Lineup changes – Does a slugger randomly hit leadoff today?
- Hot streaks – Players on fire often ignore the “stats.”
- Ballpark factors – Coors Field? Fenway? First innings often blow up.
Turn it into a Daily Ritual
Make checking NRFI stats part of your morning baseball routine.
- Go to your stat sources
- Update your model
- Pick 2-3 best games with strong scores
- Sprinkle small bets and enjoy the action!
This method won’t guarantee wins — nothing does. But it gives you a smart, fun edge.
A Final Word: Fun Over Fear
NRFI betting is a mix of numbers and vibes. Don’t overthink it. Don’t chase losses. Build your model. Watch a few innings. Jump in when you see value.
Most importantly? Have a blast. Baseball is a long season. If you make it fun and smart, it’ll pay off — in entertainment and maybe a few wins.
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Now go find your first NRFI winner. May the first inning be quiet — and profitable!